Want my podcasts and blog posts delivered to your inbox? Click here to subscribe
To listen to the podcast version of memo click here —> Podcast Version
I get many calls from business and individual clients asking me my feelings about the Coronavirus or Covid-19. They are all hearing that “Case Numbers Are Exploding!”
I decided to do some research and get more details than the headlines are showing us.
What I found is that the total number of cases is only a small part of the story. I found the following to be much more important data:
- The number of deaths is a much more significant indicator of how virulent and deadly Covid-19 is.
- And who is dying? and
- In what age groups? and
- Are average healthy people in any age groups at significant risk of death if they get Covid-19. (That answer is no) or
- Are there other risk factors that most of us in the healthy population do not have, and so our risk is much less? (That answer is yes)
- The overwhelming majority of the population, if infected, will NOT even have a mild symptom, let alone need to be hospitalized. This is hundreds of millions of people in the USA alone.
I urge everyone to ignore the headlines and research the above questions as I have. This put the danger posed by this virus in proper perspective and showed the reality of what is happening.
After my exhaustive analysis, the overwhelming majority of the population are not at risk of having mild symptoms, let alone death, if they are infected. Here are my suggestions:
- Individuals who want to protect themselves because they have risk factors should self-quarantine.
- Those who are clearly not at severe risk if they contract the virus need to have the free choice to live their lives as they did before the lockdowns.
- Businesses need to open immediately with zero restrictions in place.
My analysis shows there is no correlation between the total number of Covid-19 cases and the rate of death from Covid-19. Meaning, an increase in case numbers does not also mean the same relative increase in deaths.
So, my advice, again, is to do your own research as to what is really happening.
These graphs helped me understand how NOT virulent Covid-19 is.
These two graphs represent total global cases over time and daily global deaths through June 30, 2020.
The first graph shows a skyrocketing total number of cases starting about April 1, 2020. The total global cases went from under 1 Million to over 10 Million by June 30th, an over tenfold increase.
If you look at graph #2 you will clearly see a very steady pattern of deaths, with no exponential increase during the same period. Again, no tenfold increase in daily deaths, during a period of tenfold increase in cases.
If you look closely, the number of daily deaths on June 30 is LOWER than the April 17-19 timeframe. And during this time, there has been no spike in deaths.
We can see that this significant increase in cases does not have a relative increase in deaths.
So there is no correlation between confirmed cases and the number of people who will die from Covid-19. In fact, these two graphs clearly show that Covid-19 is less and less dangerous and that a lower and lower percentage of people that have Covid-19 are at risk of death.
This has me wondering if the lockdowns are necessary? Because apparently, spreading the virus, does not show an increase in death in people without risk factors.
Just to make it very clear, I have made an overlay of these graphs and you will clearly see the number of daily deaths having a very consistent pattern, while the number of cases has skyrocketed.
Remember, increased testing brings larger case numbers. Deaths would be the same regardless, even if there was no testing.
This next graph I want to show you is also very interesting.
This regards pneumonia deaths from 2013 through 2020. Look at the red line on the graph, which represents this current winter season, compared to the other years.
It is interesting and suspicious that suddenly at the start of 2020 the number of pneumonia deaths plummeted, going against all average history from recent prior years.
Either pneumonia deaths did actually decrease in 2020 in an almost statistically impossible way OR maybe tens of thousands of pneumonia deaths were misclassified as Covid-19 deaths on death certificates.
I will leave you with one last graph. This is deaths by age group in the US. This shows what age groups are at the greatest risk and who needs to self-quarantine. The majority of people need to be able to get back to normal as they are not at grave risk of death from Covid-19. Remember that all death rates are exacerbated by co-morbidity factors. So, the healthier you are at any age, the less likely you will even feel a symptom or know you have Covid-19.
And, based on the pneumonia graph above, it would seem that Covid-19 deaths are overstated. So, if they listed Covid-19 as the cause of death instead of pneumonia, how many other real causes of death were ignored?
Questions? Concerns? Call me on (732) 673-0510.
Want my blog posts delivered to your inbox? Click here to subscribe
Click here to request a consultation or ask me a question.
Please reach out to me without hesitation with any tax, business or accounting question, and to schedule a consultation.
Tax Laws are complex.
It is very easy to make mistakes that can incur penalties.
Do you have a Tax, Accounting or Business Question?
Call Me Immediately. (732) 673-0510.
Is your CPA or Attorney
ignoring your Phone Calls and Emails?
Call Me Immediately. (732) 673-0510.
Remember,
“If We Aren’t Working For You, Then You Aren’t Working At Your Best”
Chris Whalen, CPA
(732) 673-0510
81 Oak Hill Road
Red Bank, NJ 07701
www.chriswhalencpa.com
#Lockdown #Covid2019 #CoronavirusLockdown #CoronavirusPandemic #COVIDー19 #StimulusChecks #GovMurphy #VAR #Covid19 #Coronavirus #smallbusinessowners #incometaxes #incometax #irs #SmallBusinessSaturday #smallbusinessowner #businessmarketing #businessowner #yearend #jerseyshore #cpa #taxplanning #Accounting #TedTalk
